Online gambling – regardless of whether it is on sports or casino games, is inherently a risky process. Nearly all traditional betting and gambling strategies rely on intuition, knowledge of the sport/game, and gut feeling. Nevertheless, there is a way for you to slightly boost the odds in your favour and improve the accuracy of your betting predictions through a more systematic approach.
This is where probability models come into the mainframe. These mathematical principles can get you better insights and improve your decision-making, so let’s explore how you can use them for your gambling venture.
Let’s start by defining probability models. They represent mathematical models that you can use to predict the likelihood of a certain outcome occurring in an event. Probability models are based on statistics and probability theory, and they aim to quantify the chances of something happening – whether it is a football event, a basketball match, or a roll of a dice in online casino gaming.
Such models are very important in betting as, if used correctly, they can improve the accuracy of betting outcomes. You won’t need to rely on subjective judgement or emotional impulses – instead, you will use data-driven insights, which have proven to be much more efficient in betting.
Probability concepts can also be applied to online casino games as well. Game providers use them to create fair and balanced games, and they contain the following basic elements:
The use of probability models has some very useful real-life applications in casino gaming:
When discussing probability models in online casinos, it’s impossible to overlook the role of bonuses. These offers do far more than attract new players; they can also serve as valuable tools for improving your chances of winning.
Take free spins, for example. They extend your playtime on slots and give you more opportunities to land winning combinations when you play with actual cash.
On the other hand, free pokies NZ on Slotozilla are created for practising purposes only, so you can test the gameplay and all the features before starting to play using real cash. Yet, the payouts here are impossible.
Bonuses are a clever mix of marketing strategy and gameplay mechanics. Used wisely, they can work to your advantage. Just make sure to read the bonus terms and conditions carefully; only then can you judge whether a particular offer truly elevates your chances or simply adds extra spin without real value.
Before you start using probability models to improve your betting returns, you need to know that there are different types of such models – both for betting and online gambling.
Bayesian models are sourced from the Bayes’ Theorem. It is a mathematical formula that has a very practical use case in betting – it can adjust betting probabilities based on real-time information (player form, team stats, weather conditions, injuries, etc.).
Casino software providers also use Bayesian models for their games. For example, in a poker game, Bayesian Networks can determine the likelihood of different hands using the cards that are dealt. This helps with creating virtual opponents that can adjust to your strategies.
Moving on, Frequentist Probability Models focus on the long-term accuracy of certain events occurring. They are built based on the observation of how often a certain event repeatedly happens.
It can be quite useful in betting, as it can analyse historical data – past game outcomes and results, to predict future results.
Markov Models are very easy to define – they are probability models that predict the chance of something occurring in the future based solely on its current state, regardless of how it arrived there. In online sports betting, you can use Markov models to predict game outcomes based on current scores and stats – which is something that can come quite handy in live betting.
This model can also help understand the long-term behaviour of a casino game, which providers can use to create more balanced gameplay. Slots are a great example of how Markov Models are used. Every spin in a game of slots is an individual state – Markov Models help predict the sequence of spins that can occur and any upcoming patterns throughout many rounds.
Finally, we have Monte Carlo Simulations that are ideal for calculating probabilities of game or event outcomes that are otherwise difficult to predict due to an interfering random variable. Providers can use Monte Carlo Simulations to assess the uncertainty and probability of game outcomes over thousands of spins.
The distribution of winnings and losses is calculated, which ensures that the payout structure is fair and enjoyable.
By integrating all the above-mentioned probability models into your everyday betting activities, you can truly improve your betting accuracy. Here is why probability models are beneficial:
Probability models are not a foolproof strategy for online gambling, but they certainly allow you to implement a more balanced and data-driven strategy when making important decisions. Regardless of whether you are an experienced gambling guru, or you are just getting started in the industry, by focusing on data and probability models, you can identify good-value betting opportunities and optimise the inherent gambling risks.