There are few more exciting events on the global horse racing schedule than the Breeders’ Cup. It is the one time of the year where superstars from all four corners of the globe descend on the same racecourse with the aim of winning multi-million dollar purses.
It is a hugely entertaining event, and is also an exciting opportunity for American fans of horse racing to see the very best Equines that Europe has to offer. Qualification for a race at the Breeders’ Cup is achieved through one of the ‘Win and You’re In’ races, and a full rundown of results can be found here: https://www.twinspires.com/breeders-cup/prep-races/
But, how can a percentage calculator be used to understand the wagering probability of horses involved at the Breeders’ Cup this year?
Covert Odds to Probability
In order to understand the odds of a potential runner, it is first important to work out the implied probability of a runner’s chances of winning a race. For the most part, odds are typically shown in fractional formats, and the implied probability can be worked out using simple math.
The calculation used is: Implied Probability (%) = Denominator/Numerator + Denominator x 100. For example, if a heavy favorite for a Breeders’ Cup is priced up at 1/2, then the implied probability of their chances if 66.7%.
Therefore, horses priced up at odds of 2/1 and 4/1 have implied probabilities of 33.3% and 20%, respectively. It is by using this method that the outside chances of runners can be determined in a more straightforward way, with 10/1 and 20/1 shots having low probabilities of 9.1% and 4.8%.
Finding Value
There is value to be had in every race during the Breeders’ Cup, with each of the races having proven Grade One performers involved. Finding value is always the primary goal of a bettor when making their selections, with many experts using their own estimated probability of a winner and comparing it to the implied probability of the public.
Finding overlay selection is the key to finding value. For example, a bettor could price up a runner as having a 30% chance of winning a race at the Breeders’ Cup, and the same selection could have an implied public probability of 20%.
This directly points to a value angle where a bettor can enjoy better odds on their selection. In contrast, the same method could also be used to pinpoint poor bets. For example, if a bettor believes a horse has a 50% chance of winning but their odds suggest a public implied 62.5%, then it could be a runner to avoid.
Calculating Exotics
There is a range of betting markets available when wagering on the Breeders’ Cup, but few are as popular as the Exotics and Pick 4s, 5s, and 6s. Understanding the probability of landing a winner in these markets is important to consider before placing a wager.
It is relatively straightforward to work out, as a bettor will need to multiply the independent win percentages of each of the selected horses across all legs. This can be simply put as: Total Probability = Prob (Leg 1) x Prob (Leg 2) x Prob (Leg 3). Multiple bets such as parlays are popular to roll up favorites at the Breeders’ Cup, especially in major Championship races such as the Turf, Classic, and Mile, which typically have one outstanding runner.
Therefore, you could include three selections with each having a 50% implied probability of winning their respective races. This can be worked out like- 0.50 x 0.50 x 0.50 = 0.125/12.5%. Such is the difficulty of landing a parlay, despite betting on three clear favorites in their respective markets, there is still an 87.5% perceived chance that the bet will be a losing selection.
The unpredictability that comes with horse racing ensures that parlays can be difficult to land, as shock results or bad luck in running could have a direct impact on the final result. Therefore, it is worth examining all potential betting angles before putting money down on any selection.
What Impacts the Probability of a Horse Winning at the Breeders’ Cup?
Finding a standout betting angle is vitally important when making selections on the Breeders’ Cup, meaning it is important to assess vital factors that could impact a runner’s chances.
Horses with proven Grade/Group One form typically stand the best chance, as they have a proven record of winning at the highest levels. Recent form should also be respected, with horses finishing in the first three on their final prep run standing a considerably better chance than those that have failed to hit the board in recent starts.
There is certainly value to be found at the Breeders’ Cup, as only 31% of post-time favorites have won their respective races throughout history.
